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MISCHIEFS OF FACTION
Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics
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Four things that could still affect the presidential race but probably won't
Could the economy, a vaccine, debates, or a SCOTUS nomination change the race? Maybe, but don't count on it.
Seth Masket
Sep 21, 20204 min read


Want to take a shot at running for president? Try playing this board game.
1960: The Making of the President teaches some timeless lessons about modern campaign tactics and strategy.
Matthew Green
Sep 10, 20204 min read


The Party Abides
The Republican Party concedes that reelecting Trump is not just its chief goal, but its only goal
Seth Masket
Aug 24, 20204 min read

Do Really, Really Bad GDP Numbers Mean a Really, Really Bad November for Trump? Well...
The economy shrank by 9.5 points in the 2nd quarter. That's really bad, but can we forecast the vote from it?
Seth Masket
Jul 30, 20204 min read


The Awkward Coalition of Democrats and Lincoln Project Conservatives
Coalitions are inherently unwieldy, ugly, unstable, and unsatisfying. They're also effective.
Seth Masket
Jul 28, 20203 min read


Two Things the Trump Team is Sort of Getting Right
The Trump campaign is playing a bad hand reasonably well.
Seth Masket
Jul 20, 20204 min read


The Supreme Court reminded us that the Electoral College doesn't deliberate
The Court's decision makes clear that the Electoral College doesn't deliberate - it exists to give some states a representational advantage
Seth Masket
Jul 6, 20203 min read


Surprise, the better-known candidate with more money and party backing won despite gaffes
Hickenlooper had the edge on the fundamentals, but Romanoff was the better campaigner. Guess which mattered more.
Seth Masket
Jun 30, 20203 min read
Biden’s VP Selection is Unlikely to Have Much of an Effect on the Dynamics of the Race
Should Joe Biden choose Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren as his VP? New polling suggests neither has a strong effect on voters' choices.
The Staff
Jun 23, 20205 min read


In Defense of (Good) Photo Ops
A good photo op has important symbolic value and can be empowering. Trump's Bible stunt was pretty much the opposite.
Seth Masket
Jun 4, 20204 min read


Parties pick Vice Presidents, and they're not bad at it
The VP nominee process looks a lot like the one party reformers have been pushing for the presidency
Seth Masket
May 18, 20205 min read


Is the Coronavirus a Threat to American Democracy?
Despite some alarmist headlines, there’s good reason to think American democracy will survive the pandemic.
Matthew Green
May 5, 20205 min read

The Extremely Visible Primary for the Vice Presidential Nomination
Azari and Masket look at an unusually public campaign for the vice presidential slot and what that tells us about parties.
The Staff
May 1, 202010 min read


It's about the fundamentals, whatever those will be
We can be confident voters will hold Trump accountable for the fundamentals. We just don't know what those fundamentals are yet.
Seth Masket
Apr 22, 20204 min read


Will the coronavirus affect this year’s presidential election?
Three ways that the coronavirus epidemic could have electoral consequences.
Matthew Green
Mar 6, 20204 min read


Is the Party Deciding?
After Joe Biden won the South Carolina primary, a lot of power players in the Democratic Party have come to his aid. Rivals Pete...
Hans Noel
Mar 4, 20203 min read


The Iowa Caucuses look crazy from a distance, but you should see them up close...
This year, I took a group of Georgetown's best students to Iowa to see the nation's first caucuses unfold. (I'm taking groups to New...
Hans Noel
Feb 5, 202014 min read


Impeachment fits Trump's populist strategy perfectly.
Donald Trump’s electoral appeal is populist. It is populist in the specific sense in which Cas Mudde and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser...
Hans Noel
Dec 19, 20192 min read

Not all Democratic primary voters are as “woke” as your Twitter feed
Many engaged Democrats debate the merits of the large field of presidential candidates on social media, and this conversation can...
The Staff
Dec 3, 20194 min read

Approval ratings and vote shares
Using approval ratings to predict vote shares finds that the odds are difficult for Trump's reelection, but not prohibitive.
Seth Masket
Nov 25, 20192 min read
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