Seth Masket
The Speaker Fight through the Eyes of Lauren Boebert
Lauren Boebert had an awesome week, and not many people in the House did. She seemed to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.
top of page
MISCHIEFS OF FACTION
Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics
Search
The Staff
Dec 15, 20224 min read
Did Republican-Leaning Polls "Flood the Zone" in 2022?
2022 saw a rise in Republican-leaning pollsters as Election Day approached, which may have biased some aggregate forecasts.
Seth Masket
Nov 13, 20222 min read
The States Swing Both Ways
Some states voted a lot more Democratic in 2022 than they did in 2020, and some voted a lot more Republican. Is this unusual?
Jonathan M. Ladd
Nov 4, 20222 min read
These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable
No one knows if Trump coalition will turnout. And no one knows whether Dobbs will disrupt the usual midterm backlash
Seth Masket
Nov 2, 20224 min read
Tomorrow’s Narratives Today!
We don't know the election results yet, but we know what pundits are going to say.
Matthew Green
Oct 5, 20223 min read
Assessing the “Commitment to America”
Like other congressional party platforms, it isn’t likely to influence the election -- but it does serve other purposes.
Seth Masket
Aug 24, 20224 min read
Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?
In 2022, what traditional forecast models are telling is wildly different from what everything else is telling us. Here's why.
Seth Masket
Jul 6, 20225 min read
Republicans Doing Normal Party Stuff in Colorado
Something interesting happened in last week's primary elections in Colorado. In several key races, the Republican Party seemed to rally...
Matthew Green
Jun 2, 20223 min read
Predicting election "waves"
Things look good for Republicans running for Congress. But it's still too early to say if 2022 will be a GOP "wave" election.
Seth Masket
May 19, 20224 min read
A Really Rough Forecast for Democrats. Probably.
Democrats are completely screwed or maybe not depending on what economic measure you use.
The Staff
May 13, 20223 min read
District pork or Trump loyalty? West Virginia primary shows what Republican voters value most.
By Jeffrey Lazarus and Jennifer Victor Which matters more in Republican electoral politics today–loyalty to Trump or loyalty to...
Matthew Green
Mar 30, 20222 min read
Do congressional party platforms matter?
Election-year minority party agendas are important, but not for the reasons most people think.
Matthew Green
Mar 24, 20223 min read
Trump’s unusual endorsement game
Trump’s atypical approach to endorsing election candidates shows who his endorsements are really for: himself.
Matthew Green
Feb 22, 20224 min read
The continuing war against Liz Cheney
Why did GOP leaders commit the risky move of endorsing Cheney’s primary challenger? And what does it tell us about the GOP?
Seth Masket
Dec 28, 20214 min read
An Early Midterm Forecast
A reasonable guess is that Democrats will lose around 25 House seats in 2022. But there's a lot of uncertainty in that model.
Matthew Green
Oct 25, 20213 min read
Why both political parties care so much about Virginia
Politicians want to know what next year’s elections will bring – and create a narrative that helps them in those elections.
bottom of page