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MISCHIEFS OF FACTION
Reflections on Parties and Their Place in Politics
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The most powerful caucus in Congress?
When it was founded eight years ago, few expected the House Freedom Caucus to be as influential in American politics as it turned out to be.
Matthew Green
Jun 14, 20224 min read


What Ohio's Ninth Tells Us About the 2022 Midterm Elections
by Jeff Broxmeyer The slim congressional majorities frustrating President Joe Biden’s governing agenda have roots in the Democratic...
The Staff
Jun 9, 20225 min read

On Gun Violence, the Data are There, if Anyone Wants to Look
Politicians don't have to make stuff up about the causes of gun violence, and journalists don't have to accept that uncritically.
Seth Masket
Jun 2, 20225 min read


Predicting election "waves"
Things look good for Republicans running for Congress. But it's still too early to say if 2022 will be a GOP "wave" election.
Matthew Green
Jun 2, 20223 min read

A Really Rough Forecast for Democrats. Probably.
Democrats are completely screwed or maybe not depending on what economic measure you use.
Seth Masket
May 19, 20224 min read

Gauging Trump’s electoral influence
Trump’s endorsements aren't as influential as he claims, but they can matter in some races -- and especially when Republicans think they do.
Matthew Green
May 18, 20223 min read


District pork or Trump loyalty? West Virginia primary shows what Republican voters value most.
By Jeffrey Lazarus and Jennifer Victor Which matters more in Republican electoral politics today–loyalty to Trump or loyalty to...
The Staff
May 13, 20223 min read

Who Fled the Center?
Elon Musk is wrong about polarization, but the truth is actually complicated depending on which part of parties you examine.
Seth Masket
May 5, 20224 min read


Do congressional party platforms matter?
Election-year minority party agendas are important, but not for the reasons most people think.
Matthew Green
Mar 30, 20222 min read

Trump’s unusual endorsement game
Trump’s atypical approach to endorsing election candidates shows who his endorsements are really for: himself.
Matthew Green
Mar 24, 20223 min read


The continuing war against Liz Cheney
Why did GOP leaders commit the risky move of endorsing Cheney’s primary challenger? And what does it tell us about the GOP?
Matthew Green
Feb 22, 20224 min read


When a Party Censures
Julia and Seth argue about Sinema, whether parties should censure, and whether this was the time to do it.
The Staff
Jan 26, 20228 min read

The dysfunctional Senate
A conversation with Daniel Wirls about his recent book "The Senate: From White Supremacy to Governmental Gridlock."
Matthew Green
Jan 25, 20226 min read

Bipartisanship should not be an end in itself
History tells us that both political parties can – and sometimes have – agreed to do harmful things.
Matthew Green
Jan 20, 20223 min read


The Worst Legacy of January 6th - Making Insurrection Partisan
The legacy of Jan 6th, like Covid, didn't need to be partisan but has nonetheless become so, making it all the harder to deal with.
Seth Masket
Jan 5, 20224 min read

An Early Midterm Forecast
A reasonable guess is that Democrats will lose around 25 House seats in 2022. But there's a lot of uncertainty in that model.
Seth Masket
Dec 28, 20214 min read


Those Darned Woke Democrats
Thomas Edsall's latest New York Times piece has gotten significant attention this week. He talks to a range of political scientists,...
Seth Masket
Dec 10, 20214 min read

Is Kevin McCarthy in trouble?
Recent warnings that Kevin McCarthy won't be chosen speaker in a GOP-led House are not credible.
Matthew Green
Nov 30, 20213 min read


Why the “GOP Thirteen” aren’t likely to be punished
Strong sanctions are rarely used against party defectors in Congress – for good reason.
Matthew Green
Nov 15, 20213 min read


4 things we learned from the Virginia election that we already knew
Virginia has elected Republican Glenn Youngkin to be its next governor, challenging the state's emerging reputation as a reliably...
Julia Azari
Nov 3, 20214 min read
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